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Probability to the Defense

April28

So, an appeal was made to the Supreme Court, when it was overturned on the basis of probability arguments. The defense attorney argued that 1/12,000,000 was not the relevant probability (see previous post). In a city the size of Los Angeles, with maybe 2,000,000 couples, the probability was not that small, he argued, that there existed  more than one couple with the required list of characteristics, given that there was one such couple – the convicted pair. On the basis of the binomial probability distribution, and the 1/12,000,000 figure, this probability can be determined to be about 8% – small, but certainly allowing room for reasonable doubt. The court agreed and reversed the earlier guilty verdict!

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[I think that the left had side was a mistake and should have read (x+4)?]

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